Healthtech Fortnightly Update #10

Clinicians may have the opportunity to use wearables to help PTSD sufferers.

A good primer on bundled payments for anyone that wants to understand more about that value-based care experiment. Oh, and enrollment in Medicare’s BPCI voluntary bundled payment program dropped 16% when providers had to take on risk. A number of reasons why are offered in the article, and they’re all valid to some extent. But, this program was introduced in April 2013. So, in reality, that’s over 6 years for providers to figure out their costs, what causes readmissions etc. Clearly, that hasn’t been a priority for some.

Sensor-based medication adherence firm Proteus Digital Health shows some success with hepatitis C, more clinical details here

Skilled Nursing Facilities (SNFs) fret that value-based care is going to drive them out of business unless they adopt technology. Well, they’re right to worry, because there’s likely to be a bloodbath. There are over 15,000 SNFs, many of them smaller, independent facilities. And many of them are about to get squeezed out of the market. First, Medicare is trying to bypass SNFs altogether, and discharge people directly to their homes, with home health agencies to provide rehab. That’s because it’s cheaper, all other things being equal (although comparing  readmission rates would be interesting…). In addition, in the past, patients needing further rehab have been free to choose any SNF when discharged from hospital. As Medicare tries to make hospitals accountable for reducing readmissions, hospitals need more control over the entire episode of care, end-to-end. So, they are going to develop preferred partnerships with SNFs so they can manage and improve quality. Ergo, there will be far fewer patient days in SNFs, and only the SNFs that can guarantee quality outcomes and integrate seamlessly with hospitals will survive. A good opportunity for companies likes EarlySense and Curavi Health to help out. Even so, some SNFs will go out of business, others will be gobbled up by large SNF corporations or healthcare systems. Expect that 15,000 SNFs to become 12, maybe even 10, thousand over the next few years.

The most impressive thing from the Apple Watch heart study isn’t it’s ability to detect afib. It’s the fact that they collected data from 419,000 people. In the era of AI and machine learning, that’s a game changer. Because, all other things being equal, in the era of AI and machine learning, the person with the most data wins.

The VA obviously likes what it’s seen in it’s diabetic foot pilot with Podimetrics that it’s expanding use to all clinics.

I’ve been of the opinion for many years that the best path to bring healthcare costs under control is to make it a fully transparent and competitive market for consumers. A bit like buying a car, or a fridge, or a central heating upgrade. The push for value based care – ACOs, bundled payments etc. – haven’t really got into that yet. Now the federal government is pushing harder for transparency, and predictably the hospitals are starting to squeal louder. I touched on site neutral payments in my last piece, and predictably hospitals aren’t keen on that either. Because both transparency and site neutrality will mean lower costs for you and I, and lower margins for the hospitals.

Still on the topic of site neutrality, Fresenius reports huge growth in home dialysis. Which is just as well for a couple of reasons: First, Fresenius has to go to home dialysis if it wants a business because Medicare is pushing on that for cost reasons. Second, that’s the main reason it acquired NxStage. Relatively speaking, the US has low rates of home dialysis. Because, it seems, decades ago Medicare policy drove people into dialysis centers. Apart from the cost, I have to believe that in a country like the US with large, sparsely populated rural areas, home dialysis can provide a much better quality of life for many people.

Forest Devices wins a pitch competition for a device to help EMS crews rapidly diagnose a stroke.

Some people are very upset that Google has access to patient data through a partnership through Ascension Health. Google has since clarified things a bit. Me, I’m not that concerned about it. If healthcare is going to become affordable and accessible, we need a revolution, not tinkering. And revolution never comes from within, always from the outside. So I’m all for new approaches that might dramatically improve quality and lower costs.

Humana reports $3.5bn savings from value based care in its Medicare Advantage program.

Docs still don’t like EHRs. Never have, almost certainly never will if it takes away from their patient time. But, hard to deny that having a permanent record that could be shared is better than paper and all its limitations. Nevertheless, it unfortunately seems that EHRs are a good idea badly executed.

But wait, another plus for EHRs….the UKs NHS reports good result with the early detection of in-hospital sepsis. I think this is the full study here, so it looks like an algorithm running in Cerner is the business end of that. We can only speculate how much better the results might be if fed by continuous data from patient monitoring.

More good news on sepsis, University of Colorado has developed a predictive algorithm that runs against the EHR to predict sepsis in children.

Fortnightly Healthtech Update #9

The social determinants of health (SDOH) have rightly become a strong focus in the US in the last couple of years. Insightful then that medical students are poorly trained in nutrition. SDOH is warming up sufficiently that there is an analytics startup focused on just that – called appropriately enough Socially Determined.

The traditional split between providers and payers is fading away, with UnitedHealth buying Vivify for remote patient monitoring. As it’s the Optum division doing the buying, I don’t think this has any role in the payer side of UnitedHealth. But, monitoring patients in the home is a cost containment/reduction play, as providers try to reduce hospital re-admissions. So, most likely RPM is a service that will be offered to providers, and potentially more powerful when integrated with its population health offering.

There’s some rough and tumble in the primary care end of the business right now. There are a number of different business models, each focused on one of the big problems for patients: Timely access to a primary care doc. On one hand, there is the growth of concierge medicine and direct primary care (DPC). It’s hard to put a solid number on that apparently, but it’s there. At the other, budget end of the spectrum, are retail clinics – roughly 6,000 or so of them if Consumer Reports is to be believed. The third approach is telehealth services, such as Teledoc and MDLIVE . And that competitive dynamic has led Walgreen’s to pull back somewhat on in-store clinics. As the article notes, direct-to-consumer (D2C) telehealth has emerged as a serious competitor. And retail clinics have seen explosive growth too, growing 8% in numbers in 2018. Expect a bit of a cull and some M&A in each of concierge medicine, telehealth, and retail clinics before each finds its competitive niche.

This is pretty cool, MedRhythms is getting into trials with hospitals to improve stroke rehab. I first saw this company a couple of years ago when they were part of the Philips Healthworks incubator. Like most moments of pure genius, it’s beguiling in its simplicity, using music to help rewire the brain.

Also a simple idea with potential, a pacifier that analyzes a newborn’s saliva.

I mused last time on the potential liability that will follow the adoption of AI in healthcare. It seems Memorial Sloan Kettering are thinking about it too, but don’t have any more clarity. But then again, AI can help avoid malpractice lawsuits. None of this is going to put the brake on AI funding thought, with Viz.ai scoring $50m from Google Ventures, among others.

Google is lined up to acquire Fitbit for $7.35 a share. That’s a premium on recent trading, but a long way from the circa $50 a share post IPO. Fitbit has been trying to pivot from fitness to healthcare for a couple of years. Makes sense as fitness trackers are a dime a dozen now. Becoming a true medical device though needs a big step up in accuracy, dependability, and reliability. It’s one thing to get pretty good data from most of the people, most of the time. It’s something else entirely to get great data from all of the people, all of the time. Contrast Fitbit’s woes with Apple growing its wearable revenue by 54%. Scroll a little further down in that Apple article though, and you’ll find Withings also trying to expand from consumer devices to professional healthcare. Respectfully, I have to disagree with the CEO of Withings who says “Data is the key to improving nearly every aspect of our healthcare system.” I’ve had this discussion with many people. Data is not the answer. The key to improving healthcare is to pay providers to do what we want them to do – namely deliver better outcomes at lower cost. If we get the financial incentives right, everything else will follow – including the use of insights from data. But unless we change the financial incentives to reward the outcomes we want, all the data in the world isn’t going to change anything.

Many different viewpoints on what the Google/Fitbit deal means btw, including accelerating the pivot to healthcareGoogle can’t do hardware, and it’s all about the data.

A new paper-based approach to detecting sepsis – and I don’t mean paper-based records, I mean a sensor made from paper that won an award.

Medicare refines the reimbursement policy on  remote patient monitoring, actually making it more likely to be adopted. This is goodness, major cost and suffering savings here if care models can fall into line and support RPM for chronic care. And that is, after all, dependent on providers being clear on how to make money from it. Something which has been missing from the reimbursement guidelines thus far. Re earlier point on data only being truly useful when the financial incentives are there.

New to me, KnowFalls has a video monitoring solution as an alternative to sitters to help prevent patient falls. As it acknowledges, it’s not the first company to go down this path, but it claims to be more cost effective. Personally, I’m not sure these solutions will ever be widely adopted. For one thing, patient privacy rights in Europe can make video monitoring difficult. Also, many of the elderly patients being monitored will unfortunately be suffering from dementia. The idea of some bodiless voice talking to patients with cognitive difficulties just feels like it could be a very disturbing experience. 

The CEO of Medically Home makes a financial case for treating chronically ill patients at home. What leapt out at me here is that in the US we spend $800bn annually on brick-and-motor hospitals (I haven’t double checked that, and it’s not sourced). Problem is, while we continue to build rooms for hospital beds, hospital CFOs will want to fill them. Isn’t the accountable care organization (ACO) the best way out of this cycle..? Define outcomes standards for managing, say, heart failure. Then it’s up to the ACO to find the most cost effective way to meet those standards for each patient. With of course downside risk if they go over budget.That is something Medicare is pushing for with site neutral payments, but legal obstacles are rightly or wrongly slowing that down.

Here’s Rock Health’s latest report on digital health consumer adoption, the key highlight for me is how patients are willing to share their health data, but few providers are geared up to work with that.

Interesting move for AliveCor as it tries to fend off Apple, starting a partnership with Huami.

Amazon continues to fill out its employee health offering, with the acquisition of Health Navigator.

To wrap up, interesting insight into the impending crisis that is the declining health of millenials. Which is odd, because the preconception I had is that millennials are super focused on being  healthy. Note, this is US millennials, not sure if it applies to other countries too. Either way, it’s not good reading….